Oliver’s insights – Australian v global shares

Key points – The underperformance of Australian versus global shares since 2009 reflects a combination of tighter monetary policy, the strong $A into 2011, the slump in commodity prices, property crash phobia and classic mean reversion. – Australia’s performance...[Read More]

Oliver’s insights – macro investment outlook

Key points – 2022 was dominated by high inflation, rising interest rates, war in Ukraine & recession fears. This hit bonds & shares hard, driving losses for balanced growth super funds. – 2023 is likely to remain volatile and a retest of 2022 lows for...[Read More]

Review of 2022, outlook for 2023. Expect a rough ride but ultimately better returns

Key points – 2022 was dominated by high inflation, rising interest rates, war in Ukraine & recession fears. This hit bonds & shares hard, driving losses for balanced growth super funds. – 2023 is likely to remain volatile and a retest of 2022 lows for...[Read More]

Oliver’s insights – 2022 review & 2023 outlook

2022 was dominated by high inflation, rising interest rates, war in Ukraine & recession fears. This hit bonds & shares hard, driving losses for balanced growth super funds. 2023 is likely to remain volatile and a retest of 2022 lows for shares is a high risk....[Read More]

Oliver’s insights – the slump in home prices continues

Key points – Australian national average home prices fell another 1% in November and are now down by 6.9% from their high, having seen their steepest fall in the last forty years. – Rising mortgage rates are the main driver of the slump and there is likely more to...[Read More]

Oliver’s insights – medium term inflation pressures & implications for investors

Key points – The surge in inflation should start to reverse next year. – However, five structural trends suggest higher medium term inflation pressures than pre-pandemic. These are: a move away from economic rationalist policies; the reversal of globalisation;...[Read More]

Oliver’s Insights – Shares may have bottomed

Key points Given recession and geopolitical risks, the ride for shares may still remain choppy and new lows can’t be ruled out. But the increasing evidence of a peak in US inflation (which will lead Australian inflation), central banks slowing (or moving to...[Read More]

Oliver’s insights – seven reasons why Australia should be able to avoid a recession

Key points The combination of cost-of-living pressures, sharp interest rate hikes and a global downturn point to a sharp slowing in the Australian economy next year, with consumer confidence at recessionary levels. However, there are several reasons why Australia...[Read More]

The October 2022-23 Australian Budget

Key points Yet another revenue windfall and the offsetting of new spending with savings has resulted in sharply lower budget deficits this year and next, with the deficit this year expected to be $36.9bn (down from $78bn in March). This avoids adding to inflation and...[Read More]

Market Update 30 September 2022

Investment markets & key developments Share markets fell sharply again over the last week in response to continuing hawkish central bank comments and rising recession fears not helped by a mini fiscal crisis in the UK. This capped of sharp falls for the month...[Read More]

The RBA hikes rates by 0.25%. Here are five reasons why the RBA was right to slowdown and the top is near

Key points The RBA sensibly dropped back to a 0.25% hike this month taking the cash rate to 2.6%. Its still signalling more hikes ahead though. Slowing the pace of rate hikes makes sense: the RBA needs to allow time to assess the impact of rate hikes so...[Read More]

Shares sliding again – what’s driving it and is there any light at the end of the tunnel?

Key points Share markets remain under pressure from high inflation, rising rates & bond yields and the rising risk of recession and the threat that poses to company profits. With the rising risk of global recession, global and Australian shares are at...[Read More]

Econosights: Three reasons why Australia is more vulnerable to higher rates

Key points Australian consumers are more vulnerable to interest rate rises compared to our global peers because of : 1) higher levels of household debt; 2) a higher share of variable rate mortgages and even those on fixed-loans only fix for a relatively short...[Read More]

Australia’s productivity challenge – why it matters and what to do about it

Key points The last twenty years have seen a sharp slowdown in productivity growth in Australia from over 2% pa to around 1.2% pa. This has adversely affected growth in living standards and real wages. It will adversely affect asset class returns if allowed...[Read More]

Seven key charts for investors to keep an eye on in assessing the investment outlook

Key points While we are optimistic on a 12-month horizon, shares are at high risk of further falls and a re-test of their June lows in the short term given hawkish central banks, heightened recession risks and geopolitical risks. Seven key global charts...[Read More]